Global trade is a significant driving force and key indicator of world economic development. After enduring a continuous slump in 2023 due to high inflation and interest rates, global trade has finally reached an inflection point this year and is back on a growth trajectory. However, the path to recovery is not smooth, and global trade still faces severe challenges. Recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released the October update of the "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which points out that global trade is gradually recovering but also faces prominent downside risks. Countries should strengthen cooperation and increase the application of new technologies to effectively address the relevant risks and challenges and promote the healthy development of global trade.

The report estimates that global merchandise trade will grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, with both figures adjusted by 0.1 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points lower than the versions released in April, respectively. The latter's reduction indicates a lack of momentum in the trade recovery. The report points out that the downward adjustment of future development expectations is, to some extent, a true reflection of the trade performance not meeting expectations in the first half of this year.

In addition to slowing down in speed, the recovery of global trade is also uneven geographically. The report states that there are different demands for trade goods in various regions, with Europe being weaker than originally expected and Asia stronger than expected. The report also forecasts that the region with the fastest economic growth in 2024 will be Asia, with economic output expected to increase by 4.0%; while Europe's economic growth may be the slowest, with a growth rate of only 1.1%, showing that trade demand is largely positively correlated with economic development.

Over the past 30 years, global trade has helped developing countries significantly increase their income levels and narrow the gap with developed countries. However, the phenomenon of unbalanced benefits between developing and developed countries in trade remains prominent, and there is still a long way to go for global trade to achieve fairness. Especially in recent years, with the increase in green goods trade and the demand for raw materials such as critical minerals for the manufacturing of green goods, there is a trend of accelerating the formation of a trade pattern where low- and middle-income and even least developed countries export mineral raw materials to high- and middle-income countries, while the latter export green goods finished products. The issue of insufficient benefits for developing countries under this trade pattern will become more prominent. During the "Environment Week" event held recently at the WTO headquarters, representatives of developing countries expressed concerns about their insufficient benefits in trade, and the issue of "developing countries helping developed countries develop through trade while bearing environmental, social, and other costs" once again became a focus of attention. The report also points out that although the share of developing countries in global trade is continuously increasing and they have contributed to global economic growth, many developing countries are still on the periphery of global trade and find it difficult to achieve rapid growth. More measures need to be taken in the future to promote the participation of developing countries in global trade and achieve inclusive trade growth.

The current world has increased uncertainties and instability factors. With the intensification of geopolitical tensions, the rise of trade protectionism, frequent extreme natural disasters, and disturbances or even disruptions in supply chains, trade recovery faces significant downside risks. The report points out that conflicts in regions such as the Middle East may further disrupt shipping and push up energy prices; geopolitical tensions may also lead to trade fragmentation and supply chain disruptions, thereby increasing trade costs; uncertainties in national economic policies may lead to financial market fluctuations and economic slowdowns; the persistence of inflationary pressures may push up interest rates and thus suppress consumption and investment, ultimately affecting trade growth; in addition, the occurrence of natural disasters may also lead to damage to trade infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. The report states that supply chain disruptions are a significant challenge currently faced by global trade and may have a severe impact on global trade and economic growth.

To address the many crises faced and promote global trade on a path of inclusive and sustainable growth, it is necessary to rely on both strengthened coordination and cooperation between countries and increased application of emerging technological means. It is necessary to actively break down trade protectionist barriers, reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and enhance the level of trade liberalization and facilitation. It is also necessary to rely on new means such as artificial intelligence and digital technology to strengthen the construction of modern trade capabilities and improve the ability to cope with the impact of non-subjective factors such as war and disasters. At the same time, as technological development gives birth to new trade growth poles, it is necessary to seize opportunities to inject new momentum into the weak global trade recovery. In response to the insufficient benefits of developing countries in trade, it is necessary to improve the trade capabilities of developing countries in a targeted manner. For developing countries that rely heavily on primary products in global trade, it is necessary to strengthen investment and training to help them extend to higher ends of the value chain.

The report points out that it is necessary to establish a more open, predictable, and transparent trade environment to help developing countries better integrate into the global trade system. It is also necessary to help developing countries develop digital trade and green technology to improve their competitiveness and enhance their trade negotiation capabilities to better protect their interests. In response to the risk factors affecting trade recovery, the report points out the need to establish a risk early warning mechanism, accelerate the development of diversified supply chains, and avoid over-reliance on a single supply chain. The report also emphasizes the importance of strengthening trade infrastructure construction, proposing to improve the resilience of supply chains with more完善的 transportation and logistics infrastructure.

The development of green trade and the popularization of new technologies such as digital technology have brought new opportunities for global trade development. The report points out that with the increasing global attention to sustainable development, environmental technology trade has also grown. Trade in renewable energy goods has increased more than five times since 2005, far exceeding the growth rate of other goods and services exports. The report points out that global trade helps the widespread application and dissemination of green technology, helps address global sustainable development challenges, and promotes the transition to a more sustainable green economy. The report believes that to seize the opportunities of green trade, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, promote the adoption of digital and green technology by developing countries, and establish regulatory frameworks to ensure that the most dynamic areas of global trade can benefit developing countries more.