After the surge at the end of September, A-share assets are experiencing a correction, with the technology sector showing mixed performance. However, expectations in the field of autonomous driving remain strong.

On October 10th, amidst a comprehensive adjustment of technology stocks, the significant fluctuations and upward pull in the autonomous driving sector during the trading session were a typical warm-up move. Several intelligent driving stocks such as Dongjian Technology and Tianlong Shares hit their daily limit up. The core driving factor was the anticipated arrival of Tesla's Robotaxi.

As a result, the entire industry chain was collectively "played" by Musk.

At 10 am on October 11th Beijing time, Tesla held a press conference themed "WE, ROBOT". Musk had previously proclaimed that this event would be "historic".

It is still uncertain whether it can truly be "epoch-making", but the press conference indeed had its share of criticisms. The event was inexplicably delayed, the products seemed like science fiction but did not address fundamental issues, and the mass production continued to be a "pie in the sky" – in the eyes of the outside world, one must be wary of Musk's promises.

After several twists and turns, the appearance was still a "pie in the sky".

Giants all seem to "struggle to give birth", just like Apple's AI phone, the release of Tesla's Robotaxi also went through many ups and downs.

Initially, the press conference was scheduled to be held on August 8th, but later the official statement cited "significant changes to the front design" as the reason for the delay until October.

The market has long been accustomed to Musk's unreliability, so even as the product launch in October approached, the market was actually reserved about whether Tesla's Robotaxi could be commercialized.

On the day of the press conference, when news of a sudden medical emergency causing a delay in the meeting came again, public skepticism reached a peak. Fortunately, in the end, Musk arrived at the Tesla press conference venue in a two-door vehicle, successfully showcasing the beautiful appearance of the new car.Just as Musk "spoiled" it, this Robotaxi named Cybercab features gull-wing doors and lacks a steering wheel and pedals.

But the most important aspect is commercialization. Musk emphasized the cost issue that has been hindering the large-scale commercialization of autonomous driving on the spot. He believes that the cost of autonomous driving will be very low.

The average cost of personalized public transportation can be significantly reduced. As the business further expands, the cost of Cybercab will be reduced to about $0.2 per mile, while the current transportation cost is about $1, or approximately 7.1 yuan per mile.

This means that its Tesla can open up new business models, efficiently manage fleets in a way similar to shared mobility platforms, and thus achieve profitable operations.

Musk expects to start producing Cybercab in 2026, and by 2027, Tesla will produce this car at a very high output. In addition, on the same day, Musk also launched the autonomous driving cargo vehicle Robovan, which can carry 20 people, as well as the autonomous driving Model Y.

Investors' views are also reflected on the market. During the trading day, the A-share autonomous driving concept surged, and as of the midday closing, the stock Zhejiang Shibao hit the daily limit, while Xingyuan Zhuomei and Runhe Software rose by more than 16%, and Chengmai Technology, Ruan Tong Power, and Guangting Information followed the rise.

Autonomous driving, a little closer and even closer

In fact, looking at the terminal layout of the entire autonomous driving industry, both domestic and foreign markets have already had many companies ahead of Tesla Robotaxi, starting substantial commercial progress.

Taking the United States and China, the two countries with the fastest commercial progress in global autonomous driving, as an example, according to IDTechEX data, as of the end of 2023, Robotaxi has been tested in 15 cities in the United States and has achieved commercial deployment in 4 of them.

Among them, Waymo, which originated from Google's autonomous driving project, can be called the "godfather" in the field of autonomous driving, with the most advanced commercial progress. It has currently achieved operation without safety officers in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Just a few days ago, Waymo further announced that its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, USA, will soon be open to the public.Additionally, Cruise has also carried out larger-scale testing and pilot projects in several cities across the United States.

As for the domestic market, driven by active policy support and the development of industrial infrastructure, data from Tianyancha shows that although autonomous driving is no longer a hot topic for new startups, the number of newly registered intelligent driving-related companies in China still reached over 250 in the first half of 2024.

So far, there are currently 6,472 intelligent driving-related companies in existence in China. The trend of the domestic intelligent driving industry's accelerated expansion is apparent.

In addition to platform-based mobility companies such as Didi and Pony.ai, including internet technology giants like Baidu, autonomous driving technology companies like WeRide and AutoX, traditional automakers like SAIC and GAC, and new car manufacturers like Xiaopeng, are all accelerating the deployment of their autonomous driving products to enhance their differentiated experiences and competitiveness.

One of the earliest and deepest companies in the Robotaxi field is Baidu. After July this year, Baidu's autonomous driving service platform "RoboTaxi" (Apollo Go) has been operating on a large scale in 20 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Jinan, and Wuhan, further testing the feasibility of unmanned taxi profitability and commercialization.

Financial reports show that in the second quarter of 2024, the number of autonomous driving orders provided by "RoboTaxi" was approximately 899,000, a year-on-year increase of 26%; as of July, the total number of services provided by the RoboTaxi platform has exceeded 7 million orders. At that time, this news also stimulated enthusiasm in the sector for a period.

Overall, policy support has already begun, and the first online car-hailing operation permit awarded to an autonomous driving company in China was granted to WeRide three years ago. The construction of fleets is in full swing, with AutoX's RoboTaxi fleet size exceeding 1,000 vehicles, and Pony.ai has accumulated more than 3.5 million kilometers of unmanned autonomous driving test mileage as of the end of August this year.

Similar cases are countless in the industry, and Robotaxi always creates a wave of discussion every once in a while, just like Tesla's press conference this time.

Of course, there has not yet been a real "blockbuster" in this field, as current operations must always consider practical situations. Tesla's Robotaxi is therefore more topical, which is the "big factory effect."

Tesla is a global electric vehicle giant that can play well around the world, and its promotion of Robotaxi has global value. According to Musk's estimate, by the end of this year, Tesla is expected to obtain approval for its FSD supervised version in China, Europe, and other countries.Therefore, the official launch of Tesla's self-driving Robotaxi is likely to further catalyze the integration of global consensus in the industry.

Perhaps, as predicted by He Xiaopeng, CEO of XPeng Motors, the year 2025 will be the "ChatGPT moment" for fully autonomous driving.

You "draw the cake" and I set sail

Although Tesla's self-driving Robotaxi, with its unique high-precision map-free + pure vision solution (FSD) and global brand advantage, has attracted much attention even before its official launch. However, to say that the market has thus seen the end of the future pattern is obviously impossible.

According to Musk, Tesla's Robotaxi is likely to be mass-produced on a large scale only by 2027. In addition to the approval factors in different regions, whether Tesla itself is ready to deal with all possible situations is also a question mark.

After all, Tesla's habitual "toothpaste squeeze" rhythm itself has led many professional analysts or investors to regard it as a "big talker". Although the topic is sufficient, it is inevitable that after raising expectations every time, the results are not "explosive" enough, weakening the outside world's expectations for Tesla. Consequently, the sector and the industry chain will also be affected.

This is probably why today, after the release of Tesla's Robotaxi, the domestic self-driving sector failed to continue to increase in volume, but instead slightly declined. The long term is a certain trend, and it is a bit difficult to drive the value of the industry chain to rise in the short term.

Moreover, Tesla's Robotaxi will not be produced and launched until 2026, but domestic mature players are accelerating their layout, even including overseas.

Coinciding with the eve of Tesla's press conference, it is rumored that Apollo Go has begun discussing with foreign car manufacturers, ride-hailing platforms, and other technology companies to deploy Apollo Go overseas through local partners, among which, markets such as Singapore and the Middle East have a higher demand.

It is reported that the layout of Luobo Kuai Run in the Hong Kong region of China is being promoted and is expected to become the first business to be implemented outside the mainland market.Additionally, WeRide and Uber announced a strategic partnership at the end of September this year, planning to first deploy WeRide's autonomous driving vehicles in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, by the end of this year. Pony.ai signed a memorandum of understanding with Singapore's taxi operator ComfortDelGro in July this year, having previously expanded into South Korea, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries and regions.

Therefore, perhaps individual brands and some models have already acquired a certain level of autonomous driving capabilities. However, in the field of Robotaxi, its operational model determines that once open, it will have a relatively large scale, a denser network, and a more stringent mechanism for dividing responsibilities. Whether it is in the local market or going global, while the topic is not lacking, the actual achievements are beyond one's control.